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Labour market data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • Note that there will be one further release of labour market data next month ahead of the June MPC decision (it will be released on the Tuesday of the decision week).
  • Employment is forecast to rise by just 4,000 in the January-to-March period according to the Bloomberg consensus, after a 10,000 gain the in the three months to February. Payroll employment is forecast to rise by 51,000 in April, after a 35,000 increase in March, the smallest addition since February 2021.
  • However, the jobless rate is seen remaining at 3.8%, matching the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2019, with the employment rate remaining well below pre-pandemic levels. In the BOE’s post-MPC press conference, Governor Andrew Bailey stressed the strength of the UK labour market as grounds for underlying confidence despite the cost-of-living crisis.
  • Earnings growth likely steadied in the first quarter, matching the 5.4% annual gain recorded in the three months to February. But with CPIH averaging 5.5% over the opening three months of the year, total earnings likely fell into the red.
  • During the Treasury Select Committee testimony yesterday, we did see STIR markets price in a slightly more aggressive pace of tightening this year. And Governor Bailey highlighted that the tightness of the labour market had taken the BOE by surprise. We expect the market to remain focused on the HMRC real-time payroll employment figure as well as wage growth. However as with other recent UK releases, any market reaction might be reserved for when STIR markets open at 7:30BST.
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