May 14, 2024 05:44 GMT
Labour Market Data Due at 7:00BST
UK DATA
- With the MPC last week deemphasising labour market data somewhat, we have looked at what it could take to trigger an upside surprise to the BOE's new private sector regular pay forecasts - and possibly derail a June cut.
- We find that without revisions it would take a huge increase in the single month private regular AWE numbers to the highest level since September 2023 to exceed the Bank's 6.0%Y/Y forecast in the 3-months to March.
- Even with a 0.1ppt upward revision to February's single month print, March's single month figure would have to be higher than December's.
- So overall, to get an upside surprise to the BOE's forecast is actually quite difficult without changing the narrative around the labour market.
- From the analyst previews we have read, the median expectation is for private regular AWE to increase 5.9%Y/Y - a tenth lower than the BOE's forecast.
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