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Labour On Course For 250-Seat Majority: Focaldata MRP

UK

The latest constituency-level MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) opinion poll from Focaldata shows the main opposition centre-left Labour party on course for a 250-seat majority if its results were reflected in the 4 July general election.

  • The poll, carried out on a sample of 24,536 modeled reponses has Labour winning 450 seats compared to 110 for PM Rishi Sunak's centre-right Conservatives, a gain of 248 for Labour and a loss of 255 for the Conservatives.
  • The centrist Liberal Democrats are projected to win 50 seats (up 39) while the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) is forecast to win just 16, a net loss of 32. The right-wing anti-immigration Reform UK is projected to win a single seat.
Chart 1. Focaldata MRP, Seat Projection

Source: Focaldata

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The latest constituency-level MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) opinion poll from Focaldata shows the main opposition centre-left Labour party on course for a 250-seat majority if its results were reflected in the 4 July general election.

  • The poll, carried out on a sample of 24,536 modeled reponses has Labour winning 450 seats compared to 110 for PM Rishi Sunak's centre-right Conservatives, a gain of 248 for Labour and a loss of 255 for the Conservatives.
  • The centrist Liberal Democrats are projected to win 50 seats (up 39) while the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) is forecast to win just 16, a net loss of 32. The right-wing anti-immigration Reform UK is projected to win a single seat.
Chart 1. Focaldata MRP, Seat Projection

Source: Focaldata