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Labour Receives Polling Boost After Hipkins Replaces Ardern As PM

NEW ZEALAND

Latest opinion polling from New Zealand ahead of the 14 October general election shows the incumbent centre-left Labour Party experiencing a bounce in support that has coincided with the resignation of Jacinda Ardern and her replacement as PM by Chris Hipkins. The two polls carried out in the wake of Ardern's resignation have Labour leading the centre-right National Party by narrow margins, the first leads recorded for Labour since October 2022.

  • New Zealand's north island is currently dealing with massive flooding around the country's largest city and economic capital, Auckland. Finance Minister Grant Robertson stated that the flooding would be “biggest non-earthquake event” in terms of insurance claims that New Zealand had ever recorded.
  • The economic and social impact of the flooding is yet to be fully felt, but could have a notable impact on the election campaign as the cost of reconstruction could limit gov't spending in other areas, with both Hipkins and Nationals leader Christopher Luxon offering a broadly fiscal conservative policy platform.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 4-Poll Moving Average

Source: 1-News/Kantar Public, Newshub-Reid Research, Taxpayers' Union-Curia, Talbot Mills, Roy Morgan, Horizon Research, MNI

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