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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
The main opposition centre-left Labour party secured a sizeable win in the House of Commons by-election held on 5 October in the Scottish constituency of Rutherglen and Hamilton West. Labour secured the seat, previously held by the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP), with 58.6% of the vote compared to 27.6% for the second-placed SNP. This equated to a significant swing of 24.1% in Labour's favour.
- On 5 Oct, we highlighted that a strong result was key for Labour in signifying whether the party could mount a comeback in Scotland, which is crucial for its efforts to win an overall majority at the next general election.
- Indeed, since the by-election result came in political betting markets have shifted in Labour's favour. Data from Smarkets gives Sir Keir Starmer's party a 69.4% implied probability of winning an overall majority, from 65.4% previously.
- With Labour viewed as the likely next gov't, markets will be watching the upcoming party conference starting 8 Oct for announcements on tax or spending plans.
- Starmer and his shadow cabinet have offered little concrete in terms of policies, but with a wide lead in polls and the 5 Oct by-election likely to inspire confidence we could see more announcements in the near future.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of General Election Outcomes, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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