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LATAM FX: BBVA See USD Pullback as Having Room to Run

LATAM FX
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  • Amid stretched long USD positioning, BBVA believe the most recent shift in momentum has room to run and expect more consolidation in the near term. They believe markets will continue to keep an eye on the USD, commodities and any announcements or signals about the scope of tariffs under the Trump administration.
  • However, in the absence of new or more aggressive policy announcements that lead to more imminent adjustments, there is room for LatAm FX to recover towards the support levels of USDBRL5.65, USDCLP950, USDCOP4310, USDMXN19.80 and USDPEN3.75.
  • What might happen after that depends on UST yields, risk appetite and the still-likely implementation of US tariffs, the latter hinging on the extent of each country’s trade and manufacturing ties with the US.
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  • Amid stretched long USD positioning, BBVA believe the most recent shift in momentum has room to run and expect more consolidation in the near term. They believe markets will continue to keep an eye on the USD, commodities and any announcements or signals about the scope of tariffs under the Trump administration.
  • However, in the absence of new or more aggressive policy announcements that lead to more imminent adjustments, there is room for LatAm FX to recover towards the support levels of USDBRL5.65, USDCLP950, USDCOP4310, USDMXN19.80 and USDPEN3.75.
  • What might happen after that depends on UST yields, risk appetite and the still-likely implementation of US tariffs, the latter hinging on the extent of each country’s trade and manufacturing ties with the US.