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LATAM FX: USDCLP Falls 0.5% Following July CPI Data, Camara Swap Rates Rise

LATAM FX
  • The broad consolidation for risk sentiment since Monday and the lack of tier-one global data has kept ranges for both BRL and CLP relatively contained, both consolidating their moderate strength this week (Tech updates below). The Chilean peso has risen 0.5% on the session following the July CPI data that was above expectations. Core excluding volatile items, the central bank’s preferred core inflation measure, increased to 3.4% Y/y in July (3.2% in June), further above the BCCh’s target. Following the data swap rates have risen between 3-5bps across the Camara curve.
    • Bullish conditions in USDBRL remain intact having recently breached key resistance at 5.7008, the Jul 2 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 5.8981, the 1.764 projection of the Dec 27 ‘23 - Apr 16 - May 3 price swing. On the downside, initial support lies at 5.6113, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 5.4904. The latest pullback is considered corrective.
    • USDCLP attention is on key short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 956.73, the Jun 27 high. It has recently been breached, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle and open 990.67, the Feb 26 high. The pair has pulled back from Monday’s high. The move - for now - appears to be a correction. Key support has been defined at 929.78, the Aug 1 low.
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