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LATAM: Summary – October 07

LATAM
EM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • The BCB will publish it weekly Focus survey on Monday, with attention on analyst Selic rate expectations which rose by another 25bp last week. In Mexico, the Citi economist survey will be released, while Chile will publish September trade data. Colombia export figures for August are also due, along with September CPI inflation which is expected to dip below 6% y/y.
  • In the G10, tier one data releases are few and far between Monday, keeping focus on the much busier speaker schedule. Markets are expecting appearances from the ECB's Escriva and Nagel, as well as the Fed's Bowman, Kashkari, Bostic and Musalem - the last of which should prove most relevant for policy expectations, although it will come after the close.
  • JPY trades stronger off lows early Monday, with USD/JPY initially extending the NFP-inspired rally on the resumption of trade, before reversing through the European open to trade lower. Risk sentiment is mixed as markets continue to price in a lower likelihood of a second Fed 50bp rate cut, with the US 10y yield popping back above the 4.00% mark for the first time since early August.
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  • The BCB will publish it weekly Focus survey on Monday, with attention on analyst Selic rate expectations which rose by another 25bp last week. In Mexico, the Citi economist survey will be released, while Chile will publish September trade data. Colombia export figures for August are also due, along with September CPI inflation which is expected to dip below 6% y/y.
  • In the G10, tier one data releases are few and far between Monday, keeping focus on the much busier speaker schedule. Markets are expecting appearances from the ECB's Escriva and Nagel, as well as the Fed's Bowman, Kashkari, Bostic and Musalem - the last of which should prove most relevant for policy expectations, although it will come after the close.
  • JPY trades stronger off lows early Monday, with USD/JPY initially extending the NFP-inspired rally on the resumption of trade, before reversing through the European open to trade lower. Risk sentiment is mixed as markets continue to price in a lower likelihood of a second Fed 50bp rate cut, with the US 10y yield popping back above the 4.00% mark for the first time since early August.