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Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

US TSYS

Better 5- and 10Y Call option trade reported overnight. Meanwhile, SOFR options followed suit with better upside rate structures by midmorning discounting gradually weaker underlying futures from midmorning on. Projected rate cuts in H1 2024: January 2024 cumulative -.6bp at 5.323%, March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut -45.5% vs. -49.4 on the open w/ cumulative of -12.0bp at 5.209%, May 2024 at -81.1% vs -83.4% earlier w/ cumulative -32.3bp at 5.006%, June 2024 -97.4% w/ cumulative -56.6bp at 4.763%. Fed terminal at 5.325% in Feb'24.

  • SOFR Options:
    • Block, 35,000 SFRH4 94.81/84.75 put spds 1.5 over SFRH4 95.12 calls ref 94.865/0.03%
    • Block, +5,000 SFRM4 97.00 calls, 2.0 ref 94.68
    • -2,000 0QM4 97.00/97.50/97.75 broken call flys, 6.5/wings over
    • +4,000 0QM4 95.56/95.81/96.25/96.50 2x2x1x1 put condor, 4.5
    • +20,000 SFRU4 95.25/95.37/95.75/95.87 call condors vs. SFRU4 95.00/95.12 put spread, 0.75 net
    • Block, 5,000 SFRZ4 96.50/97.25/98.50 broken call flys on 2x3x1 ratio, 22.0 net, ref 96.095
    • 2,000 SFRU4 95.75/95.87/96.00/96.12 call condors ref 95.74
    • 2,500 SFRU4 95.87/96.12/96.37 call flys ref 95.75
    • 2,000 SFRJ4 95.00 puts, 4.25 last
    • 1,750 SFRH4 94.87/95.25 call spds
    • Block, SFRU4 95.50/95.75 4x5 call spds vs. 94.75 puts x4
    • Block 4,000 0QJ4 95.93/96.25/96.50 broken put flys, ref 96.56
    • 2,000 SFRM4 95.75/96.06 call spds ref 95.315
  • Treasury Options:
    • 2,000 TYM4 109.5/114.5 strangles ref 111-23
    • 1,700 FVH4 108.75/109.75 call spds
    • over 10,500 TYG4 111.75 calls
    • over 11,600 TYG4 112 calls
    • over 13,000 TYH4 112.5 calls, 24 last
    • over 6,500 FVG4 108.25 calls, 1.5 last
    • over 3,000 FVG4 108 calls, 4.5 last
    • Block 5,000 TYJ4 116/117.5 call spds, 5 ref 112-02.5/0.05%

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