MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US NOV CPI 0.3%, CORE 0.3%; CPI Y/Y 2.7%, CORE Y/Y 3.3%

MNI: US NOV SUPERCORE CPI (CORE SERVICES EX-HOUSING) 0.342%

MNI: US NOV CPI UNROUNDED M/M 0.313%, CORE 0.308%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

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Mixed SOFR and Treasury options segued yet again to better upside call buying Thursday, well before a debatable WSJ article rekindled some hope over a 50bp cut at next week's meeting as short end SOFR futures gapped higher (SFRU4 +.0425 at 95.095). Still off early week highs projected rate hikes have drifted off morning lows (*) : Sep'24 cumulative -31.5bp (-29.4bp), Nov'24 cumulative -68.6bp (-65.9bp), Dec'24 -107.5bp (-104.5bp). Note, overall volumes were much better than noted below, much of which were September options that expire Friday.

  • SOFR Options:
    • +15,000 SFRH5 95.75/96.00/96.25 call flys ref 96.50
    • +10,000 SRZ4 95.87/96.00/96.12/96.25 call condors 2.5 vs. 95.87.5 to -86.5/.05%
    • Block, another +10,000 SFRZ5 95.25/96.00/96.75 put flys 12.5 ref 97.19
    • Block, 3,000 0QV4 96.50/96.87 put spds 0.5 over 2QV4 96.56/96.93 put spds
    • Block, 20,000 SFRU4 95.00 puts, cab
    • Block, +22,500 SFRZ5 95.25/96.00/96.75 put flys 12.5 ref 97.135 to -.14
    • Block/screen 7,500 0QV4 97.00/97.50 2x3 call spds, 31.0 ref 97.14
    • Block, 9,000 SFRH5 95.50/95.75/96.25/96.50 iron condors, 9.0
    • 3,000 SFRZ4 95.25/95.37/95.50/95.62 call condors ref 95.835
    • 3,000 0QV4 97.12/97.37 call spds ref 97.145
    • over 20,000 SFRU4 95.00/95.12/95.25 call flys, 4.25 on screen/Block
  • Treasury Options:
    • 5,000 TYX4 115 calls, 106 ref 115-04.5
    • 2,750 TUV4 104.5/TUX4 104.75 call diagonal
    • 2,000 TYV 116/TYX 117 call diagonals, 16
    • 2,000 TYX4 115/115.5 call spds, 11
    • 2,200 TYV4 111.25/112/113 put trees ref 115-06.5
    • 2,500 TYV4 114/115 put spds, 17 ref 115-06.5
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Mixed SOFR and Treasury options segued yet again to better upside call buying Thursday, well before a debatable WSJ article rekindled some hope over a 50bp cut at next week's meeting as short end SOFR futures gapped higher (SFRU4 +.0425 at 95.095). Still off early week highs projected rate hikes have drifted off morning lows (*) : Sep'24 cumulative -31.5bp (-29.4bp), Nov'24 cumulative -68.6bp (-65.9bp), Dec'24 -107.5bp (-104.5bp). Note, overall volumes were much better than noted below, much of which were September options that expire Friday.

  • SOFR Options:
    • +15,000 SFRH5 95.75/96.00/96.25 call flys ref 96.50
    • +10,000 SRZ4 95.87/96.00/96.12/96.25 call condors 2.5 vs. 95.87.5 to -86.5/.05%
    • Block, another +10,000 SFRZ5 95.25/96.00/96.75 put flys 12.5 ref 97.19
    • Block, 3,000 0QV4 96.50/96.87 put spds 0.5 over 2QV4 96.56/96.93 put spds
    • Block, 20,000 SFRU4 95.00 puts, cab
    • Block, +22,500 SFRZ5 95.25/96.00/96.75 put flys 12.5 ref 97.135 to -.14
    • Block/screen 7,500 0QV4 97.00/97.50 2x3 call spds, 31.0 ref 97.14
    • Block, 9,000 SFRH5 95.50/95.75/96.25/96.50 iron condors, 9.0
    • 3,000 SFRZ4 95.25/95.37/95.50/95.62 call condors ref 95.835
    • 3,000 0QV4 97.12/97.37 call spds ref 97.145
    • over 20,000 SFRU4 95.00/95.12/95.25 call flys, 4.25 on screen/Block
  • Treasury Options:
    • 5,000 TYX4 115 calls, 106 ref 115-04.5
    • 2,750 TUV4 104.5/TUX4 104.75 call diagonal
    • 2,000 TYV 116/TYX 117 call diagonals, 16
    • 2,000 TYX4 115/115.5 call spds, 11
    • 2,200 TYV4 111.25/112/113 put trees ref 115-06.5
    • 2,500 TYV4 114/115 put spds, 17 ref 115-06.5