Latest Elabe Poll-RN Could Win Majority At Upper End Of Seat Proj. Range

Ahead of the 30 June legislative election first round the latest opinion poll from outlet Elabe shows the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (RN) with the potential to win an outright majority in the National Assembly. This is based on Elable's seat projections, in turn based on its latest opinion poll.

• The poll has RN on 36% (no change from its previous release), the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance and the misc. left on 27.5% (up 0.5%), the centrist Ensemble bloc supportive of President Emmanuel Macron on 20% (no change), and the conservative Les Republicains (LR) and misc. centre-right on 9% (down 1%).
• This is translated into seat projection ranges of: RN: 260-295, NFP & misc left: 155-175, Ensemble: 85-105, LR & misc right: 30-40. Note that 289 seats are required for an overall majority, meaning that at the top end of the range, RN would clear the hurdle to form a majority administration under Jordan Bardella.
• It should be noted that seat projections ahead of the first round should be viewed with some caution. France's complex electoral system (see Election Preview below for more detail) means that it is difficult to determine which parties will make the second round on 7 July, let alone which way voters will break if it is a contest between an RN and NFP candidate (a rarity historically in French legislative elections).