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Latest Housing Data Beats, But Overall Trend Is Still Down

US DATA

The October Housing Starts and Permits data were a little better than expected, especially when taking into account upward revisions to the former.

  • But as with the NAHB data yesterday (see our notes here and here), the bigger picture is the overall deterioration in housing activity - this is the lowest building permits reading since August 2020.
  • Historically, permits have been a leading indicator for turns in overall economic activity and the labor market - the Q1 peak suggests likewise in the broader economy and employment by mid-2023.

Source: BLS, Census Bureau, MNI

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