Latest Ifop Poll-RN Still Short Of Majority, Even At Top End Of Range

The 28 June rolling Ifop legislative election poll shows a marginal gain for the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (RN) compared to yesterday's survey, while the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) and centrist Ensemble have both lost some ground. Ifop, 28 June, RN: 36.5% (+0.5), NFP: 29.0% (-0.5), Ensemble: 20.5% (-0.5), LR/DVD: 7.0% (+0.5%).

• Ifop extrapolates these vote shares to equate to seat totals in the range of 225-265 for RN and allies, an increase of five seats at each end of the range compared to 27 June. Even at the top end of the range, this would be short of the 289 seats required for an overall majority. The NFP is projected on 170-200, down 10 seats at each end of the range, and Ensemble on 70-100 seats, down five at the bottom end and down 10 seats at the top end of the range compared to 27 June.
• With the campaign entering its final 24 hours before polling stations open on 30 June, and little change in polls during the course of the campaign so far, all focus will be on which candidates make it into the second round in each constituency. More RN vs Ensemble contests could see a right-wing underperformance as leftist voters opt for President Emmanuel Macron's bloc over the RN.
• However, the more likely outcome of many NFP vs RN contests makes the outcome difficult to predict, with many centrist voters turned off by both sides in such a contest.

Chart 1. Ifop Seat Range Projections based on 28 June Poll, Seats