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Latest 'Nowcast' Shows SNP On Course For Majority

SCOTLAND

The latest 'Nowcast' for the Scottish parliament election from the New Statesman/Britain Elects shows that based on recent opinion polling the separatist Scottish National Party (SNP) remains on course to win a majority of seats, boosting the prospect of a second independence referendum taking place in the next few years.

  • Holyrood Nowcast - Seats (14th April): SNP: 69 (+6), Conservative: 25 (-6), Labour: 20 (-4), Green: 10 (+4), Liberal Democrat: 5 (=), Alba: 0 (=). SNP Majority of 9. Changes w/ 2016.
Chart 1. Scottish Parliament Seat Breakdown Based On NS/BE Nowcast

Source: New Statesman/Britain Elects, MNI

  • The separatist Alba Party, founded and lead by former SNP First Minister Alex Salmond, would fail to win any seats based on current polling. There had been concerns in the SNP that Alba could split the separatist vote, resulting in the SNP failing to win a majority, but it seems at present the upstart party has not gained enough traction to cause such an outcome.

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