LDP Fighting Uphill Battle To Keep Sole Majority, Many Tight Races Expected

The Nikkei and Yomiuri Shimbun have published the results of final opinion polls ahead of this Sunday's general election, which reinforce the impression that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is fighting an uphill battle to keep a sole majority in the lower house.

• The final Yomiuri survey (October 26-28) showed that the LDP has maintained strong momentum in the proportional representation component, where they could increase their share of seats to 70 from 66, but a difficult situation in some single-seat districts makes it uncertain if they will be able to hold onto a single-party majority in the House of Representatives. Yomiuri projected that we may see tight races in around 40% of single-seat constituencies and noted that the number of districts in which LDP candidates lag behind increased to 60 from 46 in the early stage of the campaign.
• The Nikkei came to similar conclusions, noting that races will be tight in 40% of single-seat constituencies. The newspaper suggested that net approval rating of the Kishida Cabinet has deteriorated, with 47% expressing support (up from 46% earlier in the race) and 32% expressing disapproval (up from 29% earlier).
• Reminder that Japanese voters will elect 176 lawmakers through a system of proportional representation by voting on party lists, while 289 lawmakers will be elected in single-seat constituencies. The simple majority is 233 seats, but an "absolute stable majority" of 261 seats is required to control all of the lower house standing committees.