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Le Pen Gains, Pecresse Loses Ground On Pres; Taubira Seeks Leftist Unity

FRANCE

Latest polling from OpinionWay/Kea shows right-wing Rassemblement National leader Marine Le Pen gaining on incumbent President Emmanuel Macron in a hypothetical second round run-off, while centre-right Les Republicains nominee Valerie Pecresse has lost ground.

  • OpinionWay/Kéa Partners poll: Presidential run-off election: Macron (LREM-RE): 54% (+2), Pécresse (LR-EPP): 46% (-2). +/- vs. 4-7 January 2022. Fieldwork: 8-11 January 2022. Sample size: 1,613
  • OpinionWay/Kéa Partners poll: Presidential run-off election: Macron (LREM-RE): 56% (-1), Le Pen (RN-ID): 44% (+1). +/- vs. 4-7 January 2022. Fieldwork: 8-11 January 2022. Sample size: 1,613

Comes as former Justice Minister Christiane Taubira seeks to unify the French left into a force that can effectively contest in the first round of the presidential election on 10 April.

  • At present, the French left has little-to-no hope of any of its candidates making the second round, with far-left La France Insoumise leader Jean-Luc Melenchon the highest-polling candidate with around 9-10% of the vote. Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo running for the centre-left Socialist Party and Yannick Jadot for the Greens both poll in the mid-single digits.
  • Taubira is seeking to encourage all leftist candidates to enter a primary contest to decide on a single candidate that could effectively contest in the first round against Le Pen and Pecresse.
  • However, Melenchon, Hidalgo, and Jadot have so far refused to countenance the plan. Without a unity leftist candidate, the direction of travel in French politics will remain firmly on the centre-right/right.
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