Leaders Identities Confirmed, But Still Risks Around MEP Votes

The European Council, as expected, confirmed on the night of 27 June that Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will have its backing for a second five-year term in office. The Council also confirmed that former Portuguese PM Antonio Costa will take over as EUCO president, and that Estonian PM Kaja Kallas has its backing to become High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

• For Costa, the only hurdle has been cleared. A qualified majority among the Council guarantees his position with no further support needed.
• VdL will need the backing of a majority of MEPs (361 in the 720-member EP) for a second term. In the Council vote on 27 June Italian PM Giorgia Meloni abstained on VdL (and voted against Costa and Kallas). The lack of inclusion for Meloni's ECR group with regard to senior positions was viewed as a major snub to the Italian PM. It is possible that the sizeable contingent of MEPs (24) from her Brothers of Italy party could abstain on VdL's confirmation (likely 18 July).
• The combined total of MEPs from the moderate EPP, S&D and RE groups sits at 398 currently. But in VdL's 2019 confirmation at least 27% of S&D MEPs and at least 8% of RE MEPs voted against VdL. If this were repeated in July, the pro-VdL total would be 355 MEPs, below the majority threshold.
• Kallas faces a hearing among MEPs and will be voted on as part of the entire College of Commissioners in the autumn.