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Leading Index Took Another Step Lower In June

US DATA
  • The Conference Board leading index fell by slightly more than expected in June at -0.7% M/M (cons -0.6%) although it was offset by a small upward revision to -0.6% (initially -0.7%).
  • From the press release: “The US LEI fell again in June, fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment, and a reduction in housing construction”
  • “We forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024. Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further.”

Source: Conference Board

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