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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SPAIN
The two main left-wing parties/groups in Spain have confirmed that they will run on a joint ticket in the upcoming 23 July general election. While the centre-right People's Party (PP) remains likely to lead the next gov't, the leftist Podemos (Together) and Sumar (Unite) agreeing to run together could prove one of the sole factors that might deny the prospect of the PP and the right-wing nationalist Vox party gaining a combined majority in the Congress of Deputies.
- Today was the deadline for submitting to the electoral commission plans to run as alliances. Podemos Secretary General and Spanish Minister of Social Rights Ione Belarra stated that "I say it clearly, we will go to the general elections with Sumar. That decision has been made," Labour Minister Yolanda Diaz's Sumar is set to be the dominant partner in the alliance, having pulled far ahead of Podemos in pre-election opinion polling.
- On 6 June, MNI's Political Risk team highlighted the outsize important a leftist alliance of parties could have on the electoral outcome. For more info see link: https://marketnews.com/possible-podemos-sumar-alli...
- It should be noted that even with the left all running under the Sumar banner, a PP-Vox overall majority remains the most likely outcome of the election. It remains to be seen whether the two would be able to form either a coalition gov't or a workable PP minority gov't scenario post-election.
Chart 1. Congress of Deputies Seat Projections for General Election Based On Most Recent Polling
Source: NC Report, Sociometrica, Data10, MNI. N.b. Total exceeds 350 due to rounding.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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