Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The two main leftist groups in Spain, the far-left socialist Podemos ('We Can') and the left-wing progressive Sumar ('Unite') have until Friday 9 June to decide on whether to run as a formal electoral alliance in the upcoming 23 July general election. Should they run on the same ticket it could avoid the cannibalisation of one another's votes and boost the (albeit slim) chances of centre-left PSOE PM Pedro Sanchez remaining in power.
- Under Article 44 of the Organic Law of the General Electoral Regime (LOREG), parties have 10 days after the calling of an election to notify the Junta Electoral Central if they intend to run as an alliance.
- Thelatest opinion pollfrom 40dB for El Pais shows that should Podemos and Sumar run on a single ticket, they could deny the centre-right People's Party (PP) and the right-wing nationalist Vox an overall majority in parliament. Meanwhile, the two parties running separately would, according to the poll, win fewer seats with the combined PP-Vox numbers crossing the 176-seat majority threshold accordingly.
Chart 1. Seat Projections With/Without Podemos-Sumar Alliance - Outer Ring: Sumar-Podemos Alliance, Middle Ring: No Alliance, Inner Ring: 2019 Result
Source: El Pais, 40dB. N.b. Fieldwork 31 May-1 Jun, 800 respondents. Others: Union: ERC (9), JxCat (8), PNV (6), EH Bildu (4), BNG (2), CC (1), CUP (1), Teruel Existe (1) an UPN (1). Separately: ERC (10), JxCat (10), PNV (6), EH Bildu (5), BNG (2), CC (1), CUP (1), Teruel Existe (1
- It should be recognised that a single poll is not indicative of the broad trend of public support, which remains in favour of the PP coming to power under former Galician regional president Alberto Núñez Feijóo, most likely backed up by Vox.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.