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CANADA DATA: LFS Revisions Don’t Materially Alter Trends

CANADA DATA
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Newly revised labour market data point to a slightly softer jobs market through Sep-Nov (with downard revisions led by full-time positions) before the same booming Dec but the changes don’t look particularly significant to us considering the underlying volatility in the data. The rough trend remains one of a rising unemployment rate, in December at 6.7% having started 2024 at 5.7% (unrevised) and 2023 at 5.1% (previously 5.0%), albeit with a welcome patch of strong jobs growth in the final two months of the year.  

  • As the press release had indicated, the annual revisions to the labour force survey have had minimal changes on recent trends seen in the main labour data.
  • The booming employment growth seen in the December report released earlier this month was confirmed (unrevised at 91k vs what had been consensus of 25k) although it did follow some modest downward revisions to the three months prior to that (averaging 28k Sep-Nov incl 44k in Nov vs the previously seen average of 37k incl 51k in Nov).
  • The unemployment rate meanwhile was unrevised in December at 6.71%. The prior three months saw some upward revisions, with the 6.84% to 6.89% in November exaggerated on an unrounded basis although admittedly Sep-Oct saw some larger upward revisions with the most notable being the 6.49% to 6.63% in Oct.  
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Newly revised labour market data point to a slightly softer jobs market through Sep-Nov (with downard revisions led by full-time positions) before the same booming Dec but the changes don’t look particularly significant to us considering the underlying volatility in the data. The rough trend remains one of a rising unemployment rate, in December at 6.7% having started 2024 at 5.7% (unrevised) and 2023 at 5.1% (previously 5.0%), albeit with a welcome patch of strong jobs growth in the final two months of the year.  

  • As the press release had indicated, the annual revisions to the labour force survey have had minimal changes on recent trends seen in the main labour data.
  • The booming employment growth seen in the December report released earlier this month was confirmed (unrevised at 91k vs what had been consensus of 25k) although it did follow some modest downward revisions to the three months prior to that (averaging 28k Sep-Nov incl 44k in Nov vs the previously seen average of 37k incl 51k in Nov).
  • The unemployment rate meanwhile was unrevised in December at 6.71%. The prior three months saw some upward revisions, with the 6.84% to 6.89% in November exaggerated on an unrounded basis although admittedly Sep-Oct saw some larger upward revisions with the most notable being the 6.49% to 6.63% in Oct.  
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