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Light Dovish Moves in Fed Pricing On Back Of Revised Q1 Data

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Only very modest net moves in FOMC-dated OIS in the wake of the 08:30 NY data, with small downside surprises in the second round of Q1 PCE readings and a softer-than-flash personal consumption print promoting some limited dovish repricing.

  • Also note that the GDP print moderated from the initial estimate, in line with expectations.
  • 15bp of cuts are priced through the Sep FOMC (vs 14bp pre-data), while 22bp of cuts are priced through the November meeting (vs. 20bp pre-data) and 36bp of cuts are priced through year-end (vs. 33bp pre-data).
  • The rear-view mirror element to the Q1 data is a limiting factor when it comes to market reaction, especially with the latest monthly PCE reading due tomorrow.
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Only very modest net moves in FOMC-dated OIS in the wake of the 08:30 NY data, with small downside surprises in the second round of Q1 PCE readings and a softer-than-flash personal consumption print promoting some limited dovish repricing.

  • Also note that the GDP print moderated from the initial estimate, in line with expectations.
  • 15bp of cuts are priced through the Sep FOMC (vs 14bp pre-data), while 22bp of cuts are priced through the November meeting (vs. 20bp pre-data) and 36bp of cuts are priced through year-end (vs. 33bp pre-data).
  • The rear-view mirror element to the Q1 data is a limiting factor when it comes to market reaction, especially with the latest monthly PCE reading due tomorrow.