MNI BRIEF: German Economy "Treading Water", Prices Stable -Ifo

MNI BRIEF: China To Release Childcare Subsidies, Boost Income

MNI: ITALY FEB HICP 0.1% M/M, 1.7% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Mulls New Tools Targeting Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China House Prices Up In February

MNI BRIEF: China Data Shows Good Foundation Despite Issues

MNI: US JAN BUSINESS INVENTORIES +0.3%; SALES -0.8%

MNI: US NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX 39 IN MAR

MNI:US FEB RETAIL SALES +0.2%; EX-MOTOR VEH +0.3%

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: Light Hawkish Reaction To US Reciprocal Tariff Announcements

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Euribor futures are -1.0 to -3.0 ticks through the blues, as markets assess yesterday’s US Reciprocal tariff announcement. President Trump ordered his staff to research and propose country-by-country levies, with the result of the studies expected to be completed by April 1. The EU is expected to be targeted by this policy, with Trump’s team launching complaints against the EU’s VAT policy. The delay between announcement and implementation reduces some immediate growth risks and adds scope for negotiation (likely driving the light hawkish reaction), but uncertainty remains high.

  • ECB-dated OIS price 80bps of easing through year-end, ~1.5bps more hawkish than yesterday’s close and down from ~90bps earlier this week.
  • The second estimate of Eurozone Q4 GDP headlines today’s regional calendar and is expected to be unchanged at 0.0% Q/Q (below the ECB’s latest projection of 0.2%).
  • This release will include an initial estimate of quarterly employment growth and  - more importantly - real productivity per employee. The ECB projects employment growth at 0.1% Q/Q and productivity at 0.8% Y/Y.  

 

Keep reading...Show less
179 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Euribor futures are -1.0 to -3.0 ticks through the blues, as markets assess yesterday’s US Reciprocal tariff announcement. President Trump ordered his staff to research and propose country-by-country levies, with the result of the studies expected to be completed by April 1. The EU is expected to be targeted by this policy, with Trump’s team launching complaints against the EU’s VAT policy. The delay between announcement and implementation reduces some immediate growth risks and adds scope for negotiation (likely driving the light hawkish reaction), but uncertainty remains high.

  • ECB-dated OIS price 80bps of easing through year-end, ~1.5bps more hawkish than yesterday’s close and down from ~90bps earlier this week.
  • The second estimate of Eurozone Q4 GDP headlines today’s regional calendar and is expected to be unchanged at 0.0% Q/Q (below the ECB’s latest projection of 0.2%).
  • This release will include an initial estimate of quarterly employment growth and  - more importantly - real productivity per employee. The ECB projects employment growth at 0.1% Q/Q and productivity at 0.8% Y/Y.  

 

Keep reading...Show less