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Light Volumes Aid EUR/USD Incline, Friday Highs Next Up

EUR
  • EUR/USD looking more stable just below the earlier highs - as the uptick falters just ahead of the next topside level at 1.0868, the Friday high. Worth noting today's incline in the pair has been on relatively light volumes, with futures markets pointing to activity around 25% below average for this time of day. This may pick up on any further strength and break of resistance, which would then target 1.0872 - the 50% retracement for the downleg off last Thursday's high.
  • US prelim durable goods orders and the consumer confidence release make up the calendar, but it's month-end flow that could prove to be more decisive - although less easy to pinpoint on timing.
  • There also rests considerable options interest at today's cut (coinciding with month-end value date), with E4.1bln set to roll off between 1.0860-70 - a lumpy expiry that's also likely to be helping pin prices in the pair higher into NY hours.
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