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Likely Downward Pressure On Inflation Expectations

AUSTRALIA DATA

The delayed Melbourne Institute’s consumer inflation expectations for May print today. In April they fell to 4.6% from 5%, the lowest since October 2021. While the series is not forecasted, there is a good chance that expectations will ease further in May.

  • Since the last survey, Q1 CPI data showed that not only has inflation peaked but it has moderated more than expected. On the other hand, services prices continued to rise. The RBA hiked rates again, which should increase confidence that inflation will come down.
  • The Budget may have sent mixed signals with Treasurer Chalmers’ message that government policies are reducing energy inflation but the stimulus being cited as inflationary in the press.
  • And while inflation expectations haven’t been moving as closely with petrol prices as they did last year, they fell 2.4%, 1.8% and 2.9% in the last three weeks respectively.
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