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Likely Short-Lived Bump to Retail in CBI's October Report

UK DATA
MNI (London)

UK OCT CBI RETAIL REPORTED SALES +18 (FCST -15); SEP -20

UK NOV CBI RETAIL EXPECTED SALES -9; OCT -13

  • The October CBI retail report recorded surprisingly robust trade, with retail sales volumes expanding by 18% following the -20% decline in September (note this indicator tends to be volatile). A modest decline of -9% is anticipated for November, realigning with the longer-term trend of declining sales.
  • The rising cost of living, higher interest rates and weak economic outlooks have substantially dampened consumer demand heading into the holiday season.
  • This report could boost October ONS national retail data due on November 18. Following 1.4% m/m and 6.9% y/y contractions in September, a boost to October retail sales will however unlikely see an exit from contractionary territory.

Source: CBI

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