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Free AccessLittle Change In Latest Ifop Poll, RN Lead But Short Of Majority
The latest in Ifop's rolling daily opinion poll shows little change on yesterday's numbers. The right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (RN) lead with 36% support, the same as 26 June. The leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alliance is in second place on 29% (up 0.5% on the day), while the centrist Ensemble alliance of President Emmanuel Macron remains in third place on 21% for the third day in a row.
- Ifop translates these support levels into a seat projection range of 220-260 for RN and its allies, short of the 289 required for an overall majority. NFP could win 180-210, with Ensemble on 75-110. The centre-right Les Republicains and other misc. centre-right parties could win between 25 and 50 seats.
- Note that pre-first round seat projections should be taken with some caution, given the uncertainty of the which parties will make the second round in each constituency, and then projecting which way voters from parties that did not make the second round will break.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.