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Little Changed Ahead Of 30Y Supply, BoJ May Scrap NIRP In March: PIMCO

JGBS

At the Tokyo lunch break, JGB futures are holding the overnight uptick, +3 compared to settlement levels, ahead of 30-year supply.

  • With the domestic calendar light today, Leading and Coincident Indices for December (Preliminary) as the only releases, the local market’s focus has on 30-year supply.
  • (BBG) The Bank of Japan may scrap its negative interest-rate policy as soon as March and make multiple hikes this year, adding to the bearish outlook for the nation’s government bonds, according to Pacific Investment Management Co. (See link)
  • Cash JGBs are slightly richer across the curve, with the futures-linked 7-year leading (0.6bp richer). The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.4% lower at 0.719% versus the Nov-Dec rally low of 0.555%.
  • Today's 30-year auction follows last week’s 10-year supply, which bucked recent trends and showed solid demand metrics. The low price matched wider expectations, the tail shortened, and the cover ratio improved to 3.648x from 2.904x at January’s auction.
  • The current 30-year auction is taking place with an outright yield that is 15bps higher than the early January offering. The 2/30 yield curve is 15bps steeper and the 10/30 curve is 5bps steeper than the levels observed in early January.
  • Swaps are little changed. Swap spreads are mixed.
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