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AUSSIE BONDS: Little Changed, Tariffs On Canada, Mexico & China Confirmed

AUSSIE BONDS
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ACGBs (YM flat & XM -1.0) are little changed after US tsy yields finished last week modestly higher. 

  • US tsys extended lows late Friday after White House officials confirmed 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico, and 10% on China will be announced Saturday, February 1.
  • Over the weekend, Canada and Mexico have announced retaliatory tariffs on the US. In addition, China has said it will take counteractive measures and file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organisation.
  • Focus turned to this week's heavy corporate earnings docket, key CPI and PPI inflation measures and headline employment data for January.
  • Cash ACGBs areslightly mixed with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -10bps.
  • Swap rates are flat to 1bp lower.
  • The bills strip is little changed.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (137%), with the probability of a February cut at 91% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Today, the local calendar will see Retail Sales, Building Approvals, CoreLogic Home Values, S&P Global PMI Mfg, Melbourne Institute Inflation and ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements.
  • A new 21 March 2036 Treasury Bond is planned to be issued via syndication this week (subject to market conditions). 
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ACGBs (YM flat & XM -1.0) are little changed after US tsy yields finished last week modestly higher. 

  • US tsys extended lows late Friday after White House officials confirmed 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico, and 10% on China will be announced Saturday, February 1.
  • Over the weekend, Canada and Mexico have announced retaliatory tariffs on the US. In addition, China has said it will take counteractive measures and file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organisation.
  • Focus turned to this week's heavy corporate earnings docket, key CPI and PPI inflation measures and headline employment data for January.
  • Cash ACGBs areslightly mixed with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -10bps.
  • Swap rates are flat to 1bp lower.
  • The bills strip is little changed.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (137%), with the probability of a February cut at 91% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
  • Today, the local calendar will see Retail Sales, Building Approvals, CoreLogic Home Values, S&P Global PMI Mfg, Melbourne Institute Inflation and ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements.
  • A new 21 March 2036 Treasury Bond is planned to be issued via syndication this week (subject to market conditions).