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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
ECB
- With the fully expected decision to leave the main policy rates unchanged, and virtually identical Monetary Policy Decisions statement compared with the the September meeting, market-implied rate pricing is likewise basically unchanged from pre-decision.
- Near-term, another 2-3bp of tightening is priced in for the rest of the cycle to a Dec 2023 peak, with longer-dated contracts suggesting 1-2bp less hiking than seen previously, but no material change. (Euribor futures generally move 1.0-1.5 ticks higher post-ECB statement.)
- Very little reaction in EURUSD - it has remained in a 13 pip range for the last c. 50 minutes.
- Almost zero reaction for the single currency, with EURUSD continuing to hover at session lows around 1.0530. Obvious focus now turns to the US GDP data at the bottom of the hour and then Lagarde’s press conference 15 minutes later. EURUSD has now remained in a 13 pip range for the last c. 50 minutes.
- This week’s sell off reinforces a bearish theme for EURUSD and, as noted, suggests that the recent correction between Oct 3 - 24 is over. Note too that Tuesday’s price pattern is a bearish engulfing candle - a reversal signal. A continuation lower would signal scope for 1.0496, the Oct 13 low. The key support and bear trigger lies at 1.0448, Oct 3 low.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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