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Little Movement In EUR STIR As ECB Speakers Stick To Script

STIR

ECB implied rates were broadly unchanged on today's ECB Executive Board speakers.

  • OIS contracts price 87bps of rate cuts through the remainder of '24, with 20bps of easing showing through the June meeting.
  • To recap, President Lagarde's speech focused on familiar matters covered by ECB speakers in recent weeks i.e. having a lot more data by the June meeting vs April.
  • Lane and Schnabel's appearances were more academic, discussing the ECB's inflation forecasts and R*.
  • Euribor futures are -3.0 to +1.0 through the blues at typing.
  • The Fed decision at 1800GMT/1900CET provides the immediate macro risk event, while tomorrow's regional calendar is highlighted by the flash round of March PMI data.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Apr-243.901-0.7
Jun-243.706-20.2
Jul-243.564-34.4
Sep-243.361-54.7
Oct-243.210-69.8
Dec-243.040-86.8
Jan-252.927-98.1
Mar-252.790-111.8
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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