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Little React To Nov FOMC Minutes, Watching Financial Conditions Closely

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are firmer for the most part, 30Y Bond still mildly weaker vs. the balance of the strip. Still inside a narrow session range, markets showed little reaction to the November FOMC minutes.
  • Fed officials believed tighter financial conditions could lessen the need for additional monetary tightening as they decided to hold interest rates steady for the second straight meeting earlier this month. “Financial conditions had tightened significantly in recent months,” the minutes said. “Persistent changes in financial conditions could have implications for the path of monetary policy and it would therefore be important to continue to monitor market developments closely.”
  • Tsy futures had extended highs after this morning's lower than expected Existing Home Sales data (3.79M vs. 3.9M est, 3.95M prior/rev), MoM (-4.1% vs. -1.5M est, -2.2% prior/rev).
  • Dec'23 10Y futures had tapped 109-03.5 high (+8.5), pared gains after the 10Y TIPS auction drew 2.180% yield vs. 2.94% prior. TYZ3 trades 108-30.5 last, still well above initial technical support below at 108-04 (50-day EMA). Initial technical resistance at 109-08+ (High Nov 17).
  • Heavy volumes (TYZ3 >2.7M) is due to a surge in quarterly futures rolling ahead First Notice on Nov 30.
  • Reminder: shortened Thanksgiving holiday week: full session Wednesday sees weekly claims, durables/cap-goods and UofM conditions/inflation expectations., Thursday close, Friday early close.

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