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Little To No Growth Expected For Q4

NEW ZEALAND

NZ Q4 GDP is released on Thursday and forecast to print close to flat resulting in GDP per capita falling again. Growth is expected to be lacklustre across sectors as there are now signs services are also slowing as the recovery in tourism is offset by less domestic spending in the sector. The RBNZ is also projecting flat growth for Q4 before it recovers somewhat in H1 2024.

  • Q4 volumes data have been weak with retail sales down 1.9% q/q, manufacturing -0.6% and building -0.1%.
  • Bloomberg consensus is at +0.1% q/q with annual growth flat in Q4. There is a range of forecasts from -0.7% to +0.4% q/q with most between -0.2% and +0.2%.
  • In terms of the local banks, ANZ and BNZ project a 0.1.% q/q rise in Q4 GDP, Kiwibank and Westpac no growth, and ASB a 0.2% q/q contraction.
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