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LNG Market Battle Between Asia Demand and New Supply: Timera


The LNG market is set for battle in 2026-30 between Asian LNG demand growth and a large wave of new supply according to Timera Energy.

  • Short term inelastic supply and demand could drive price volatility in both directions, but the current European gas & LNG market consensus is firmly bearish. The gas market will be subject to volatility until significant new LNG supply starts into 2026.
  • European gas prices could rise quickly if a broad commodity rally were to take hold.
  • A 52% increase in global LNG supply is projected by 2030 driven by North America and Qatar. Modest new supply capacity is scheduled for 2024, including Arctic LNG 2, Tortue FLNG, Altamira Fast LNG, Congo FLNG, Corpus Christi Stage 3, and Plaquemines LNG.
  • Lower prices from oversupply underpin strong Asian LNG demand growth driven by China, India, and other Southeast Asia countries. Demand in the large traditional JKT markets are expected to remain relatively stable this decade.
  • Nuclear and renewable electricity generation & broader decarbonisation with drive a structural decline in demand in the JKT region.

Source: Timera Energy

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