LNG Market Tight in 2024 Amid 5% Global LNG Demand Growth: ICIS

Global LNG demand is forecast to rise 5% y/y to 423.4m tonnes in 2024, but capacity growth will remain limited according to the ICIS 2024 LNG outlook.

• “With ongoing declines in Japan and Korea, but modest LNG import growth in China continuing, we see the unconstrained global market as undersupplied on an annual basis.”
• The market could tighten further on a better than expected economy in China or if US sanctions restrict operations of Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project although “there could be some upside on [supply] growth in late 2024.”
• “There is a major new wave of projects ahead from 2025 onwards, first from the US, Canada and Mexico and later from Qatar.”
• Europe's LNG imports are forecast to increase 15% to a record high of 128m tonnes (174.5bcm) this year driven by Western Europe, including the UK, and in latter half of the year.
• European fuel costs "remain too high relative to other regions" for demand to return to pre-2022 levels before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
• The tight LNG supply is expected to support TTF prices. "Market signals will be required to create the needed balance."