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Local Analysts On Tomorrow’s Employment Report

CANADA

Consensus sees total employment rising 15k in July after the surprise -43k in June, a small rise from the record low u/e rate to 5.0% (+0.1p) and further acceleration in Y/Y wage growth.

  • CIBC: In line. While labour supply appeared to be a primary factor behind the last month’s weakness, this time around a muted rebound is expected to be the result of weakening demand for staff particularly in rate sensitive areas such as real estate & construction.
  • RBC: In line. The small rise in u/e rate to 5.0% comes with the number of people looking for work bouncing back from a decline of almost 100k in June.
  • Scotia: 35k jobs growth but u/e rate in line. Job search indicators look strong which suggests a rebound in the labour force in a reversal of the prior month’s retreat. Much of the -43k in June was in the self-employed category and wouldn’t be surprised to see a technical rebound.
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Consensus sees total employment rising 15k in July after the surprise -43k in June, a small rise from the record low u/e rate to 5.0% (+0.1p) and further acceleration in Y/Y wage growth.

  • CIBC: In line. While labour supply appeared to be a primary factor behind the last month’s weakness, this time around a muted rebound is expected to be the result of weakening demand for staff particularly in rate sensitive areas such as real estate & construction.
  • RBC: In line. The small rise in u/e rate to 5.0% comes with the number of people looking for work bouncing back from a decline of almost 100k in June.
  • Scotia: 35k jobs growth but u/e rate in line. Job search indicators look strong which suggests a rebound in the labour force in a reversal of the prior month’s retreat. Much of the -43k in June was in the self-employed category and wouldn’t be surprised to see a technical rebound.