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Long End Leads A Recovery From Lows

US TSYS
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Tsys have moved away from session lows over the last hour or so. Benchmark yields are 2.5-4.0bp lower across the curve, with the long end leading the rally.

  • Some pointed to a moderation in the ADP survey’s job changer wage growth, although that still runs above +9.0% Y/Y, so isn’t showing signs of meaningful cooling.
  • Given the volatility in the ADP employment survey metrics and lack of surprise in the QRA we point to the hold of yesterday’s low in TYM4 futures and already short positioning in futures (see earlier bullet for more on that), which could factor into positioning adjustments ahead of today’s risk events.
  • An apparent 15K TY block buyer adds further support in recent trade, with the contract moving to fresh session highs on the follow.
  • ISM manufacturing and JOLTS jobs data provide the immediate risk events ahead of the FOMC.
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Tsys have moved away from session lows over the last hour or so. Benchmark yields are 2.5-4.0bp lower across the curve, with the long end leading the rally.

  • Some pointed to a moderation in the ADP survey’s job changer wage growth, although that still runs above +9.0% Y/Y, so isn’t showing signs of meaningful cooling.
  • Given the volatility in the ADP employment survey metrics and lack of surprise in the QRA we point to the hold of yesterday’s low in TYM4 futures and already short positioning in futures (see earlier bullet for more on that), which could factor into positioning adjustments ahead of today’s risk events.
  • An apparent 15K TY block buyer adds further support in recent trade, with the contract moving to fresh session highs on the follow.
  • ISM manufacturing and JOLTS jobs data provide the immediate risk events ahead of the FOMC.