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Looking ahead to Eurozone HICP print at 10:00CET

EGBS
  • Bund futures continued their descent early in the Asian session after yesterday's 2 tenth and 7 tenth upside surprises to Spanish and German HICP prints respectively. Markets had been looking for more upside surprises for this morning's inflation data, so Bund futures have reversed the majority of the Asian weakness following the release of this morning's French HICP data which was in line with the consensus that was compiled ahead of yesterday's prints.
  • The next test will come with the release of the pan-Eurozone and Italian HICP prints at 10:00BST / 11:00CET. Again the consensus looks stale at 7.8%Y/Y, we still think that despite the moves following the French data that the market is looking for a little more. So we think the breakeven is probably around 8.0%Y/Y - anything more than this and we could see this morning's moves reverse and move back to the lowers, anything at 7.8% or lower and we could see more of yesterday's sell-off reversed.
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