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Low Stocks and Cheap Freight Support Summer US-EU Gasoline Arb

OIL PRODUCTS

Gasoline crack spreads are extending the trend higher today having seen a gradual increase from lows on 8 May.

  • The US gasoline premium over diesel is above the seasonal high and gasoline flows from Europe to US have surged higher with a wide arbitrage. Low stocks and cheap freight could support the transatlantic arb over the summer. US gasoline imports from Europe were up at 360kbpd in April according to Bloomberg.
  • Diesel cracks remain subdue with weak current demand and future demand concerns with the threat of a US recession.
  • European diesel imports from US Gulf Coast jumped higher in April and could stay strong with recovering refinery run rates and competition from Russia for supplies to Latin America.
    • US 321 crack up 1$/bbl at 34.75$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 1.7$/bbl at 38.37$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -0.2$/bbl at 27.49$/bbl
    • EU Gasoline-Brent up 0.6$/bbl at 21.67$/bbl
    • EU Gasoil-Brent down -0.2$/bbl at 15.37$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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