Low Turnout Expected In Legislative Election; 1st Since 2022 Protests

Elections to Iran's legislature, the Islamic Consultative Assembly, are taking place today in the first nationwide vote since the anti-gov't protests that swept the country in 2022 following the death of 22 year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody. Given that all candidates running in the election are vetted by the Guardian Council, the prospect of any anti-regime politicians getting elected is nil.

• As such the main method of protesting the gov't is to boycott the polls. This means turnout will be viewed as a key metric of gauging public dissatisfaction. Turnout in the 2020 legislative election was the lowest on record at 42.5%, a significant decline on the 62% turnout in 2016.
• The hardline conservatives, known as 'Principalists' are set to maintain an overwhelming majority in parliament, with the Reformists, who last held a majoirity following the 2000 elections, likely to remain a small rump of moderate influence.
• Elections to the Assembly of Experts are also taking place. This body is formed by clerics and is empowered to appoint the Supreme Leader. With the incumbent Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 84 years old, and the Assembly elected for eight-year terms there is enhanced focus on the hardliner vs reformist balance in the body given the elevated prospect that it will decide on the next Supreme Leader.