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Low US Distillate Stocks Especially in East Coast Region

OIL

Low stocks levels of middle distillates and gasoline are particularly noticeable in US PADD 1B (Central Atlantic) and 1A (New England). Overall US distillate stocks are just over 20% below normal but PADD 1B stocks are over 52% below normal.

  • The low stocks are partly due to lost refinery capacity in recent years for example the PES refinery explosion in 2019.
  • Supplies from the US Gulf Coast aren’t increasing with pipelines running at full capacity and with shipped supplies uneconomical against cheaper imports. Imports have been hindered by maintenance at Canadian refineries and increased demand from Europe due to reduced Russia supplies.
  • The region contains the NY harbour delivery point for the futures contract with low stocks driving up future prices and keeping the curve in backwardation.
    • US 321 crack up 0.6$/bbl at 36.23$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 19.95$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -0.8$/bbl at 68.68$/bbl
    • EU Gasoline-Brent up 1.6$/bbl at 7.75$/bbl
    • EU Gasoil-Brent down -0.5$/bbl at 42.91$/bbl

Source: MNI / EIA

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