Lower following Bailey's speech last night

Markets have moved to price in more from global central banks in early European trading, with the biggest moves seen in SONIA futures.

• BOE expectations have moved higher on the open following Bailey's speech yesterday which gave little new away but reiterated that evidence has "pointed to more resilient activity in the economy" and he again played down the impact of strains from financial stability.
• The most significant part of the speech is a tweak in language around inflation: he noted that there have been "two months in which there was first some downside news on inflation relative to our expectation and then a bit more upside news. This reminds us that the path of inflation will not be entirely smooth and cost and price pressures remain elevated." This is a little different to the line taken by the wider MPC last week that pointed to inflation largely being in line with expectations, and seems to be a subtle acceptance that the last print was an upside surprise.
• Dec23 SONIA moved to a low of 95.595 after the open, and is now around 3 ticks higher, but still down 10 ticks on the day.
• In terms of BOE pricing we are looking at around 21bp for May now (up from yesterday's close of 18bp) with a terminal cumulative 39bp priced by August (from 34bp at yesterday's close).