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LR's Bertrand Has Best Chance Of Ousting Macron In 1st Round: Ifop Poll

FRANCE

The latest set of opinion polls gauging candidate support in hypothetical scenarios ahead of next year's presidential election show Hauts-de-France regional council President Xavier Bertrand is the best-placed potential centre-right candidate to oust President Emmanuel Macron in the first round and set up a showdown with recently re-elected right-wing nationalist National Rally (RN) head Marine Le Pen. The other leading candidates challenging for the centre-right Gaullist Les Republicains (LR) presidential nomination - Ile-de-France regional council President Valerie Percrasse and former LR President Laurent Wauquiez - both trail Bertrand's support levels.

  • Scenario: Bertrand as LR (EPP) candidate: Le Pen (RN-ID): 26% (-1), Macron (LREM-RE): 24% (-1), Bertrand (LR-EPP): 18% (+3)
  • Scenario: Wauquiez as LR (EPP) candidate. Macron (LREM-RE): 28% (+1), Le Pen (RN-ID): 26% (-4), Wauquiez (LR-EPP): 13% (+5)
  • Scenario: Pécresse as LR (EPP) candidate: Le Pen (RN-ID): 26% (-3), Macron (LREM-RE): 26%, Pécresse (LR-EPP): 14% (+4), Mélenchon (FI-LEFT): 8% (-4).
    • All Polls Ifop-Fiducial, +/- vs. 18-20 May 2021. Fieldwork: 29 June-2 July 2021. Sample size: 1,337
  • With Bertrand only trailing Macron by 6% in the Ifop poll, and following on from his strong result in the Hauts-de-France regional council election on 27 June - where he won re-election with 52% of the vote in the second round - he is seen as the current front-runner for the LR nomination.
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