Free Trial

Lula Short Of 1st Round Win 9 Days From Election According To Polling


Opinion polling nine days out from the first round of the presidential election on 2 October shows leftist Workers' Party (PT) candidate Luiz Inacio 'Lula' da Silva falling short of the 50%+1 of the vote required to avoid a run-off.

  • Average polling from the last seven days has Lula on 46% of the vote compared to an average of 35% for incumbent right-winger Jair Bolsonaro over the same period.
  • Should be noted that there are an increasing number of voices,including Goldman Sachs and Legacy Capital, warningof the result being much closer between Lula and Bolsonaro than polls are currently reflecting.
  • If no candidate wins over half the vote in the first round, the two highest-placed candidates go through to a run-off on 30 October. Hypothetical second-round polling between Lula and Bolsonaro shows the former holding a consistent lead ranging from 8% to 19% in the month of September.
Chart 1, First Round Opinion Polling, % and 5-Poll Moving Average

Source: Datafolha, Arko/Atlas, Quaest, PoderData, BTG, Ipec, Ipespe, MDA, MNI

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.