Free Trial
USDCAD TECHS

Trend Needle Still Points North

AUDUSD TECHS

Trend Remains Down

STIR FUTURES

Near-Term Fed Hikes Resilient But 2023 Rates Slide

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

Lula Short Of 1st Round Win 9 Days From Election According To Polling

BRAZIL

Opinion polling nine days out from the first round of the presidential election on 2 October shows leftist Workers' Party (PT) candidate Luiz Inacio 'Lula' da Silva falling short of the 50%+1 of the vote required to avoid a run-off.

  • Average polling from the last seven days has Lula on 46% of the vote compared to an average of 35% for incumbent right-winger Jair Bolsonaro over the same period.
  • Should be noted that there are an increasing number of voices,including Goldman Sachs and Legacy Capital, warningof the result being much closer between Lula and Bolsonaro than polls are currently reflecting.
  • If no candidate wins over half the vote in the first round, the two highest-placed candidates go through to a run-off on 30 October. Hypothetical second-round polling between Lula and Bolsonaro shows the former holding a consistent lead ranging from 8% to 19% in the month of September.
Chart 1, First Round Opinion Polling, % and 5-Poll Moving Average

Source: Datafolha, Arko/Atlas, Quaest, PoderData, BTG, Ipec, Ipespe, MDA, MNI

192 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.

Opinion polling nine days out from the first round of the presidential election on 2 October shows leftist Workers' Party (PT) candidate Luiz Inacio 'Lula' da Silva falling short of the 50%+1 of the vote required to avoid a run-off.

  • Average polling from the last seven days has Lula on 46% of the vote compared to an average of 35% for incumbent right-winger Jair Bolsonaro over the same period.
  • Should be noted that there are an increasing number of voices,including Goldman Sachs and Legacy Capital, warningof the result being much closer between Lula and Bolsonaro than polls are currently reflecting.
  • If no candidate wins over half the vote in the first round, the two highest-placed candidates go through to a run-off on 30 October. Hypothetical second-round polling between Lula and Bolsonaro shows the former holding a consistent lead ranging from 8% to 19% in the month of September.
Chart 1, First Round Opinion Polling, % and 5-Poll Moving Average

Source: Datafolha, Arko/Atlas, Quaest, PoderData, BTG, Ipec, Ipespe, MDA, MNI