Opinion polling nine days out from the first round of the presidential election on 2 October shows leftist Workers' Party (PT) candidate Luiz Inacio 'Lula' da Silva falling short of the 50%+1 of the vote required to avoid a run-off.
- Average polling from the last seven days has Lula on 46% of the vote compared to an average of 35% for incumbent right-winger Jair Bolsonaro over the same period.
- Should be noted that there are an increasing number of voices,including Goldman Sachs and Legacy Capital, warningof the result being much closer between Lula and Bolsonaro than polls are currently reflecting.
- If no candidate wins over half the vote in the first round, the two highest-placed candidates go through to a run-off on 30 October. Hypothetical second-round polling between Lula and Bolsonaro shows the former holding a consistent lead ranging from 8% to 19% in the month of September.
Source: Datafolha, Arko/Atlas, Quaest, PoderData, BTG, Ipec, Ipespe, MDA, MNI