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Free AccessMacro Developments Since March FOMC: Prices [2/2]
- Core PCE inflation meanwhile provided the greater surprise, with the Q1 advance coming in surprisingly strongly at 4.94% annualized (cons 4.7%) for the strongest quarter since 1Q22.
- The Fed can however take some consolation that the relative upward surprise was focused early in the quarter, which instead has seen the latest monthly rates slow from 0.56% M/M in Jan, to 0.35% in Feb and 0.28% in March data released Apr 28.
- This latest run rate was the softest since Nov’22 whilst more pleasingly for the Fed, Bloomberg’s calculation of the preferred non-housing core services series eased a tenth to 0.24% M/M for its softest since Jul’22 and prior to that Feb’22.
- This ‘supercore’ clearly remains too high seeing as July’s -0.09% M/M was the only time its been below the monthly rate consistent with 2% annualized inflation since Nov’20, but the latest moderation is at least in the right direction.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.