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Macro Developments Since March FOMC: Prices [2/2]

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Core PCE inflation meanwhile provided the greater surprise, with the Q1 advance coming in surprisingly strongly at 4.94% annualized (cons 4.7%) for the strongest quarter since 1Q22.
  • The Fed can however take some consolation that the relative upward surprise was focused early in the quarter, which instead has seen the latest monthly rates slow from 0.56% M/M in Jan, to 0.35% in Feb and 0.28% in March data released Apr 28.
  • This latest run rate was the softest since Nov’22 whilst more pleasingly for the Fed, Bloomberg’s calculation of the preferred non-housing core services series eased a tenth to 0.24% M/M for its softest since Jul’22 and prior to that Feb’22.
  • This ‘supercore’ clearly remains too high seeing as July’s -0.09% M/M was the only time its been below the monthly rate consistent with 2% annualized inflation since Nov’20, but the latest moderation is at least in the right direction.

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