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The latest French presidential opinion poll from Elabe shows incumbent Emmanuel Macron extending his lead in first-round polls, while right-wing challengers Eric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen fall back.

  • In all scenarios relating to the potential candidate of the centre-right Les Republicains (LR), Macron holds a lead of at least 8% over his closest first round opponent. Right-wing polemicist Zemmour sits in second place, leading Marine Le Pen of the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (RN) by at least 3%
Chart 1. Elabe Opinion Polling, 1st Round. Hypothetical LR candidates listed at top

Source: Elabe. Fieldwork: 10-11 November, Chgs w/25-27 Oct. 1,484 respondents

  • Macron also leads in all hypothetical second round match-ups polled. He leads Le Pen 58% (+3) to 42% (-3), Zemmour 65% (+4) to 35% (-4), and the most popular LR candidate nationally Xavier Bertrand 55% (+2) to 45% (-2).
  • While the first round is still nearly 5 months away, at this early stage the election appears to be Macron's to lose.
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