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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FRANCE
With less than a week to go until the second round of the French presidential election, incumbent Emmanuel Macron's narrow lead has stabilised and in some cases grown in recent polling.
- Cluster17 poll: Presidential run-off election: Macron (EC-RE): 53.5% (+0.5), Le Pen (RN-ID): 46.5% (-0.5), +/- vs. 13 - 14 April 2022. Fieldwork: 17 - 18 April 2022. Sample size: 2,793
- Political betting markets have remained largely stable in recent days, with data from Smarkets showing bettors giving Macron an 89.2% implied probability of winning compared to a 10.9% implied probability for right-wing Rassembelement National leader Marine Le Pen.
- Prior to the 10 April first round, Macron's implied probability of re-election stood at 74.6% to Le Pen's 23.8%.
- Major focus on the lengthy presidential debate taking place at 2100CET (1500ET, 2000BST) on Wednesday 20 April. A poor performance from Le Pen in 2017 contest was seen as damaging to her prospects of election. Looking at polls she will be relying on a strong showing to overcome Macron's lead.
Chart 1. Second Round Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Ifop-Fiducial, BVA, Cluster17, Ipsos-SopraSteria, Harris Interactive, Elabe, Odoxa, AtlasIntel, OpinionWay/Kea, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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