Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FRANCE
Opinion polls in the run-up to the second round of parliamentary elections taking place in France on Sunday 19 June show President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Ensemble alliance on the precipice of losing its majority in the National Assembly.
- Opinion polling seat projections by-and-large show Ensemble as winning seats just above or just below the 289-seat threshold required for a majority (see chart below).
- The leftist NUPES alliance, led by Jean-Luc Melenchon, outperformed in the first round, matching Ensemble with 25.7% of the vote each. Marine Le Pen's right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (RN) came in third place with 18.7% of the vote.
- A potential boon for Macron's alliance is that in the second round, most seats are a contest between Ensemble and either NUPES or RN. As such, voters on the right (if NUPES are running) or the left (if RN are running) could swing behind Ensemble in order to keep their political opposites out of office.
- Polling stations close at 2000CET (1400ET, 1900BST) on 19 June, with preliminary results expected shortly after.
Chart 1. France Legislative Election Opinion Polling, Seat Projection (Mean average of range) and Trendline
Source: Odoxa, Harris Interactive, Elabe, Ipsos-Sopra Steria, OpinonWay/Kea, Ifop-Fiducial, MNI.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok