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Macron's Parl't Majority Hangs In Balance With 2nd Round Vote On Sunday

FRANCE

Opinion polls in the run-up to the second round of parliamentary elections taking place in France on Sunday 19 June show President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Ensemble alliance on the precipice of losing its majority in the National Assembly.

  • Opinion polling seat projections by-and-large show Ensemble as winning seats just above or just below the 289-seat threshold required for a majority (see chart below).
  • The leftist NUPES alliance, led by Jean-Luc Melenchon, outperformed in the first round, matching Ensemble with 25.7% of the vote each. Marine Le Pen's right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (RN) came in third place with 18.7% of the vote.
  • A potential boon for Macron's alliance is that in the second round, most seats are a contest between Ensemble and either NUPES or RN. As such, voters on the right (if NUPES are running) or the left (if RN are running) could swing behind Ensemble in order to keep their political opposites out of office.
  • Polling stations close at 2000CET (1400ET, 1900BST) on 19 June, with preliminary results expected shortly after.
Chart 1. France Legislative Election Opinion Polling, Seat Projection (Mean average of range) and Trendline

Source: Odoxa, Harris Interactive, Elabe, Ipsos-Sopra Steria, OpinonWay/Kea, Ifop-Fiducial, MNI.

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Opinion polls in the run-up to the second round of parliamentary elections taking place in France on Sunday 19 June show President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Ensemble alliance on the precipice of losing its majority in the National Assembly.

  • Opinion polling seat projections by-and-large show Ensemble as winning seats just above or just below the 289-seat threshold required for a majority (see chart below).
  • The leftist NUPES alliance, led by Jean-Luc Melenchon, outperformed in the first round, matching Ensemble with 25.7% of the vote each. Marine Le Pen's right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (RN) came in third place with 18.7% of the vote.
  • A potential boon for Macron's alliance is that in the second round, most seats are a contest between Ensemble and either NUPES or RN. As such, voters on the right (if NUPES are running) or the left (if RN are running) could swing behind Ensemble in order to keep their political opposites out of office.
  • Polling stations close at 2000CET (1400ET, 1900BST) on 19 June, with preliminary results expected shortly after.
Chart 1. France Legislative Election Opinion Polling, Seat Projection (Mean average of range) and Trendline

Source: Odoxa, Harris Interactive, Elabe, Ipsos-Sopra Steria, OpinonWay/Kea, Ifop-Fiducial, MNI.