Macron-Zemmour Run-Off Still Most Likely Outcome: Poll

The latest poll from Harris Interactive shows right-wing polemicist Eric Zemmour as the candidate most likely to make it to the second round of France's presidential election. Zemmour trails incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and leads right-wing National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen in all three hypothetical polls, each with one of three potential centre-right Les Republicains (LR) candidates.

• Harris Interactive polls, +/- vs. 28-30 October 2021, Fieldwork: 5-8 November 2021, Sample size: 2,001:
  • Scenario: Bertrand as LR candidate: Macron (LREM-RE): 23%, Zemmour (*): 18% (+1), Le Pen (RN-ID): 15%, Bertrand (LR-EPP): 14%, Melenchon (LFI-LEFT): 10%.
  • Scenario: Pécresse as LR candidate: Macron (LREM-RE): 24%, Zemmour (*): 18% (+1), Le Pen (RN-ID): 16%, Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 10%, Pecresse (LR-EPP): 10%.
  • Scenario: Barnier as LR candidate: Macron (LREM-RE): 24%, Zemmour (*): 19% (+1), Le Pen (RN-ID): 15% (-1), Barnier (LR-EPP): 10% (+1)
• The LR debate on the evening of 8 November was judged to have passed by without any single candidate significantly boosting their campaigns. The party will hold a congress on 4 December to decide on its candidate. Xavier Bertrand performs best in national opinion polls. However. former EU Commissioner Michel Barnier (who has taken a hard-right policy turn since his days negotiating the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement) could win through. Barnier is seen as a faithful party stalwart compared to the other candidates who left to form their own conservative parties, only to then return to seek the LR nomination.