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Madrid holds elections for its regional assembly today with incumbent regional president, Isabel Diaz Ayuso from the conservative People's Party (PP), looking likely to retain power. Polls indicate that in order to form a majority administration the PP will require support from another party, which is likely to come in the form of the right-wing nationalist Vox.
- Final pre-election poll (carried out after legal ban on opinion polls enforced): PP: 41.5%, 60 seats; PSOE: 19.9%, 29 seats; Mas Madrid: 17.0%, 24 seats; Vox: 9.4%, 13 seats; Unidas Podemos: 7.1%, 10 seats; Citizens: 3.9%, 0 seats. Electopanel/Electomania. Fieldwork: 2 May. 2,000 respondents.
- With 69 seats required for a majority, a PP-Vox coalition would just hold enough seats to govern with no other parties. Previously, the PP had governed in coalition with the Citizens party.
- Ayuso has led a populist campaign, and a strong performance may see her become a major challenger for the PP leadership at the federal level.
- The PP and Vox have never governed at the autonomous community-level without the centrist Citizens party also present as a moderating force. If the PP and Vox do end up forming a gov't in the capital it could be seen as setting a precedent for a future federal coalition of the same composition.
- See our Political Risk team's article 'Spain PM Eyeing Madrid Vote Result' for more details on the race.